Melless

Has anyone invested in Gold and Silver?

18 posts in this topic

Has anyone invested in Gold and Silver?

Hi guys,

I'm sorry for bringing up a topic on materialism in a spiritual forum, but I'm sure this has been going through everyones minds about the widely predicted global economic collapse.  Has anyone thought about best ways to minimalist loss?  I've read that China is investing hugely in gold and several financial experts are advising investing into physical silver and gold if you want to save your money.  On one hand I think what's the point since there will be a 'forest fire' anyway, but on the other for the meantime I will need money to help me build whatever I need to build for the next stage of the human evolution.  Is anyone doing anything about it?

Thanks,

Mx

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I've invested in gold.  It's not so much an investment.  Rather it's a fiat vehicle for cash as an alternative. 

What made gold attractive over last 10 years or so is USA fed central bank's policy to lower interest rates and increase money supply.   It was a policy that made the US dollar weaker as a currency.  So.  Imagine you had 500$ in bank today.   Almost immediately.   After they started printing money diluting the value of a dollar.   You lost money by saving.   

So. The fed says.  Don't save ur money!!!

without directly saying it.    They have said. No.    Don't save.    You will be punished.  So. People looked to put money elsewhere. Like stocks. Or gold.   

Traditionally in past.  It'd be wise to buy treasury bonds as the safest investment.  But albeit the treasury bonds still being safest asset to date.    It offers no yield.    The issue now is that world banks.  

Japan's Abe Shinzo.    And draghi and ECB have decided to make interest rates negative yielding.  Which is like extreme way of saying. Don't save euros or yen

and it's by proxy making the US dollar stronger.   

The fed doesn't like this.  But they can't lower rates much more than they have now. They raised short term interest rates.   2 yrs and early fed rates.  But the USA 10 year t bond and 30 yrs treasury yield is actually lower yield today (after a public rate hike) than September of last year to date

therefore.   I would say it's hard to bet on gold.    It's really hard to say what ur best bet is.   But at the very moment in time.   The USD is a decent investment.   Bc it's rising against yen / great British pound.  And euro 

I wouldn't expect this to last.  But I have no idea what the future holds.  I would be cautious investing in gold.   No reason it should go up or down right now.  It's fairly uncorrellated.   It's also a commodity.   So.  It's supply and demand.  

So.  Very hard to speculate the future for gold.  

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There's an argument today that could be made that since interest rates are soooooo low.  --- you'd be wise to get a mortgage maybe.   

But that is hard to invest in. And I don't think housing should be a great investment for sake of fiat.   It should be as its traditionally always been.  Something you live in.  And pay off over long period of time. (Record low rates).  In increments until U own it fully. But there's also no reason why housing prices should ALWAYS RISE!     But in 30 years?  Ur house ur living in today and started paying off?   Likely worth more than when u bought it.  But that may be wrong. 

Bc we could have a giant natural disaster or something.  And ur house gets destroyed.  Etc.  so much for ur beachfront home under sea water 

I think it's like 3% mortgage rates.     In few years.  It could be 16%.     That's not a certainty. But u would much rather borrow for 3%

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So.  This is the situation.  We have a very timid fed.   They have been saying they want to raise rates for 4 years.  And every time they take a step forward.  (Raise rates a bip). The mkt crashes.  And they take 3 steps back.  

You generally want to be careful buying bonds and gold in a period like this.   If rates go up.   You might be sorry. But where are you safe?   Idk.   

Don't buy into any theory.   

Because it's a coin toss.  

Ron Paul says buy gold?  I haven't heard him say that recently.  But.  Let's assume you go by the logic of this.  I clicked a link on teal site to here.  An banner advertisement on this thread.  http://thecrux.com/dyncontent/ron-paul-issues-surprising-warning-about-gold/?cid=MKT147626&eid=MKT300059&gclid=CMKgipieiM8CFcxkhgod6q0LtQ

 

the big picture they're selling is that USA economy is going to collapse so buy gold!

lets assume they're correct.   Let's say Ron Paul is right and the market is about to collapse and so on.    

Lets assume we took a time machine into future and back  it's a guarantee 

Whats the best way to protect yourself in this case?    

If the market is going to crash.  You wouldn't buy gold.  Bc who knows where it'll go .  

U would do the PURE PLAY.

SELL  SHORT THE S&P FUTURES.    

 

Edited by M_The_Raven
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29 minutes ago, M_The_Raven said:

So.  This is the situation.  We have a very timid fed.   They have been saying they want to raise rates for 4 years.  And every time they take a step forward.  (Raise rates a bip). The mkt crashes.  And they take 3 steps back.  

You generally want to be careful buying bonds and gold in a period like this.   If rates go up.   You might be sorry. But where are you safe?   Idk.   

 

Thank you for the info!  I was thinking about house, but in the UK houses are still very expensive and I'm not sure i want to stay here for very long.  What about silver? Is that safe to invest in?

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Just now, Melless said:

Thank you for the info!  I was thinking about house, but in the UK houses are still very expensive and I'm not sure i want to stay here for very long.  What about silver? Is that safe to invest in?

Me too. I'm in USA. But I suspect I'll be moving some point. And I'm not really ready to buy.   So.   It's a bummer.   The situation today?   I think that it's a good time to borrow.   For argument sake.  Bc rates are low. That's not me saying.  "Go buy a house".   That's me saying.  Damn.  I wish I was looking to buy a home. Bc mortgage rates are very low.   And maybe won't last 

Still not buying a house today.  And it's not a way to protect yourself against a mkt crash.  But neither is gold.    The pure play is usually the best play if ur certain

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So. You ask about silver.  It's very similar to my view on gold.   You're in uk.   So ur seeing a deflating and weakening GBP.    

your market FTSE didn't really crash.  But took a hair cut.   And let's assume you're not sure what the future holds.  You're worried about retaining what u have in current situation?    If you know what will happen tommorow.  You have an edge.   So if you're positive the GBP will collapse.    Short GBP/USD. 

I have no intuition or guesses.  I'm as confused and lost as you.  I am sitting on my hands.  Until intuition strikes me.    But my view is.  Do the pure play always.  

If u think mkt will crash.  Don't buy gold and bet on correlation.   Bc that's unreliable.  Do the pure play.  Short mkt. 

fwiw.  My advice?   Don't short GBP/USD.  don't buy gold or silver.  Don't short the mkts.   Just wait.  Sit on hands.  Until u have better ideas 

If u know something or gut tells u otherwise.  Do the pure play.   Shorting the mkt is pure play.   Bc.  No reason gold or silver should rise if mkts crash. No reason. It has in past. But who knows what in future?

i personally don't have a very strong conviction in the certainty of any future scenario today.  Like if u ask me what I thought.  I say flip a coin. Heads or tails.  Best guess

but let's assume ur certain.   U think mkt will crash.    Short the mkt.   that's ur best move. 

Edited by M_The_Raven

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Gold and silver always have intrinsic value.   

But if that's ur argument for owning them.   Buy diamonds.   They're rarer and just as illiquid as gold or silver could potentially be one day.    But buy Cartier or Tiffanys fucking titanic black diamond.  Put in safety deposit box.   That's the intuition behind owning gold and silver.  

Imagine gbp crashes.   U buy Cartier diamond ring for 20,000 quid.   

10 years sell it for 100,000 quid.  Bc the gbp is worth less. 

Thats the intuition behind a fiat currency 

that works when central bank's print money.   

Usd.    Particularly.   For  nearly 8 years USA fed been printing money.   So.  Usd was the worst investment on earth.  So gold was popular.  It went up.   Now usd is rising slow against world currencies.   So ??  I have no idea what to do.   Wait .  Gold is not easy to forecast.   No one knows future of gold or silver.   Or anything at this point.  

 

Gold futures for example trade on NYMEX.   Ny mercantile exchange.    London comex.    But in general.  You're paying for the storage costs and holding costs of the gold contracts you purchase.  

 So.  Ur paying premium for the contracts.  And they need to be constantly rolled.  And bought on margin 

so.  They have ETF called GLD (ticker)

and similar kinds of vehicles.   But they do the management of the rolling of futures contracts.  They do a lot of physical bullion storage.  Like they have a vault.  And it costs them money to keep the gold safe.  Secure.   Etc.   

they charge the share holders a fee for that.   

Management fees.  So.  Ur still paying for storage and costs.   And ur paying some people to manage the fund itself.   Even if it's a gold commodity 

so.    The alternative is to buy gold and put in a safety deposit box in bank.  U pay a fee for storage. It's illiquid. 

Diversity is best. 

Buy art.   That retains value.   Expensive art

guitars from 1960s.  Lol.  I wish I bought more 60s les Paul's and stratocasters in the 80s.  I'd be rich today.   great ROI.   But it's same concept.   I had to store them properly.  And keep them in good shape for 40 years.   Or whatever.  Or.  Maybe I just played them and sold them for a fortune anyway.   Either way.  If u play an old guitar u need to keep it playing right. 

Same with Stradivarius violins.  Same shit.   Gold Cartier tank watches from 1975.     Same shit.   It's got value.  

But if u had cash 500$ in bank in 2008.  And kept it there.  You lost half the value.  

Edited by M_The_Raven

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3 hours ago, Melless said:

Thank you for the info!  I was thinking about house, but in the UK houses are still very expensive and I'm not sure i want to stay here for very long.  What about silver? Is that safe to invest in?

Sorry for getting rather pedantic.  Truth is.  The most valuable asset in earth is piece of mind.   Love as a commodity.    And I've taken just a detour in my life to learn some more practical finance skills that are related to above fundamental arguments I made.  

Whats important to know.   I have no faith or belief in fundamental or technical arguments.  Rather. I approach finance through the lens of randomness.  

Its all a stochastic process (time dependent.  Linear.).  And there's just a  Brownian motion or randomness to prices.    And regardless of what pundits and tv spokespeople attribute price fluctuations to.   It's often meaningless noise we are sooooo incapable of accepting exists and is real that we derive a meaningless explanation. 

 

Why is gold up and not down???   _______ insert meaningless assumption here.  

But in reality.  It's random white noise.    

Humans like explanations for things.   And there's often no explanations.  In life. In nature or in markets. 

Why is gold up and not down?   Why did the lizard walk east this minute and west the next?    

Why did this molecule or particle of light go through the slit randomly?   Why?    (quantum physics)

its a random processs.  We need an explanation.   But there's none. Accept its gambling.   And be a Saavy gambler.  Play ur aces when ur holding  the flop of full house aces kings.  And know when to fold when u got nothin to show for it.  

Theres no fundamental argument for holding gold.     Truly.  No more so than holding a stock.   

Or cash.   Or any asset.   It's VERY DANGEROUS to expect that if the mkt crashes.  Gold will go up.  

NOPE!!!!!  who says????

gold can crash with the mkt.   or gold can crash for no reason or explode upwards for no apparent reason either.  

It's a random process over time.   The only relative thing is what you achieved. 

If your goal is to make a capital gain and make money.  Fine.   It's why we all gamble.  Roulette black or red?

up or down.    It's not known.  Just know that if u EXPECT the mkt to crash.  Best place to put your bet is not long gold.   But short the mkt.   

Edited by M_The_Raven
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3 hours ago, Melless said:

Thank you for the info!  I was thinking about house, but in the UK houses are still very expensive and I'm not sure i want to stay here for very long.  What about silver? Is that safe to invest in?

Don't feel bad.  I gamble for a living.   If u can win 54% of the time. You're a winner!!!  

But before you invest in gold.   (Gamble)

invest in this book.  And read it.  Then. Place a bet on red or black and hope roulette gods love you.   

 

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13 hours ago, Melless said:

Has anyone invested in Gold and Silver?

Hi guys,

I'm sorry for bringing up a topic on materialism in a spiritual forum, but I'm sure this has been going through everyones minds about the widely predicted global economic collapse.  Has anyone thought about best ways to minimalist loss?  I've read that China is investing hugely in gold and several financial experts are advising investing into physical silver and gold if you want to save your money.  On one hand I think what's the point since there will be a 'forest fire' anyway, but on the other for the meantime I will need money to help me build whatever I need to build for the next stage of the human evolution.  Is anyone doing anything about it?

Thanks,

Mx

Also.  Full disclosure.  I'm only on here rambling because of attention deficit.  And procrastinating on homework and study for the moment.   

Helps to take mental breaks.  Or just pause and come back later.   

Gold?   We all want to stake our riches and claims in golden prospects.    We grew up on stories of old colonial white people buying up or taking territory filled with riches.  And the prospector who struck the lottery.  But why gold?   It's only relative.  If u buy it today.   You want it to go up.   It could go down forever.   And cost u to hold it.   Even you Brits stake good claim with your witty Keynes.   "Markets can stay irrational way longer than you can stay solvent." He quipped.     And that's most especially true in commodities 

I say.   Sit on ur hands unless u know the future.  Bc if u do. Tell me. So I can lay down some bets along side u.   

Edited by M_The_Raven

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14 hours ago, Melless said:

Has anyone invested in Gold and Silver?

Hi guys,

I'm sorry for bringing up a topic on materialism in a spiritual forum, but I'm sure this has been going through everyones minds about the widely predicted global economic collapse.  Has anyone thought about best ways to minimalist loss?  I've read that China is investing hugely in gold and several financial experts are advising investing into physical silver and gold if you want to save your money.  On one hand I think what's the point since there will be a 'forest fire' anyway, but on the other for the meantime I will need money to help me build whatever I need to build for the next stage of the human evolution.  Is anyone doing anything about it?

Thanks,

Mx

I want money too. 

Maybe we can leverage a cricket betting syndicate in ur town.  And make mad $$$$.   Gaming and odds rigging the cricket betting pools.   We did it for the money.    And others bought gold hoping for the same kind of oppurtunity in riches. 

I may end up moving to England someday soon.  I don't know. But it becomes more real daily as it manifests.  Truth.   Off topic.  I think that's a good business idea.  

 Cricket betting syndicate.  

I hope u let Julian Assange go free too.  I can't stand the idea of USA telling uk to keep a leash on our favorite international outlaws forever.  Altho. Mandela was on the list in the past. 

Thats sort of why I love the idea.   Shift.

Huck finn and shit changing.    Like when Gandhi was bad and a terrorist.  And USA slavery was awesome for cotton farmers.   But not necessarily for huck Finn and nigger Jim.  

And how books always start off like.  Back when this shit was this way.   This story happened.  

Insert adventure here.   

Edited by M_The_Raven

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i hope we all win.  On our various pursuits.  

As long as they're benign.  Don't be evil.  Love ✌?️❤️???

Roll the dice bukowski said.   I'll blow on em for luck.   Win babe.    Roll the big win.  

Edited by M_The_Raven
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Haha thank you @M_The_Raven for all the info. I'm not so interested in making more money, just saving what I've already saved.  But yes no-one knows the future so it's all a betting game. I don't think I have enough interest in gambling to take it up properly, so will probably leave my savings as they are for now....let's hope all will be ok!

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4 hours ago, Trinity Anderson said:

One of the big "puppet masters", if you will, of the world named George Soros came back into the investing game after many years away, to invest heavily in gold just a couple months ago. It's a good call. I was considering it but don't have enough money to make it worthwhile. 

I hadn't heard soros was buying gold.    I didn't read the news   I often don't   I look at the yield curve tho   and swaps curve     Look at the put call action   I look at stuff like that but   I don't follow the pundits     Tune out of Bloomberg tv    

Just watch things.   Keep eye out. .   And observe.       When I have no ideas or intuition   I do absolutely nothing!!!!   

And it's one of those times now for me   

Gold?   Hmmmmm    I don't know   I don't know where it's headed   

I know  world's  largest sovereign  wealth fund in China.    (SAFE.)  it's called as Acronym.  

Last year and I suspect less so but still frequently keeping these mkts moving is  China central bank were buying up lots of gold and US treasuries.   For big lots.  

 But truthfully.  I don't know who's playing the gold market today.   

Soros isn't always right.  --- but if he bets the farm on something.   I wouldn't want to be on the other side of that trade.    GBP/USD was the trade that truly made him famous in 90s. 

But.  Gold?   I don't know.   --- who is out there buying it up?    It could be many.  But they speculate it's cheap from intuition.   

I don't know if there's much a fundamental reason to be buying up gold or silver now.  Unless you just feel like trend following.  

Which im hesitant to do.   I'm often not betting against the herd.  Especially when they all do the same thing.   

But I don't bet with them either just because the CFAs at all firms say so.  

 Analysts tend to be right together all the time and. When they're wrong.  They tend to all be wrong together too. 

I don't have any good trading ideas at moment.   

Edited by M_The_Raven

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